The United Kingdom's economy is facing 'Chipflation,' an inflationary trend caused by the surging demand for chips critical to artificial intelligence development.

The UK economy is showing signs of a rebound, but its progress is complicated by the fallout from the Iran war and persistently high energy prices, which threaten to bring the G7's fastest-growing economy to a halt.

The UK economy experienced growth, boosted by hot weather and the men's football World Cup, but experts warn of challenging months ahead, partly due to the potential impact of the Iran war.

A new report indicates that heatwaves are projected to cost the UK economy £4.4 billion, with potential losses escalating to £25 billion by the end of the decade, highlighting the growing economic impact of climate change.

Wall Street saw gains and oil prices tumbled after President Trump indicated he would ease attacks on Iran and suggested impending talks, despite Iran's denial of new negotiations. The UK economy, however, faces recession risks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while the yen strengthened after a combined US-Japan operation.

The Bank of England's decisions on UK interest rates have a significant impact on the money and finances of individuals and businesses across the country.

Data firms report that UK economic confidence in July was positively impacted by heatwaves, the World Cup, and the 'Burnham bounce' effect. These factors collectively contributed to an improved mood regarding the UK economy.

A new report indicates that a decrease in international student enrollment has cost the U.K. economy an estimated £2.9 billion (US$3.89 billion), highlighting the significant financial contribution of overseas students.

The latest economic data indicates a rebound in the UK economy, a development noted as a positive sign for the incoming Prime Minister, Andy Burnham.

Economists anticipate the UK's GDP to have increased by a modest 0.1% in May, following a slight contraction in April, with the Iran war identified as a contributing factor to the subdued growth.

A report by doctors reveals that poorly handled disciplinary investigations in the workplace are costing the UK economy an estimated £28.5 billion each year. The report suggests these flawed processes also negatively impact staff well-being and public health.

The Bank of England has been granted new authority to regulate critical third-party technology companies, including Amazon, Google, Oracle, and Microsoft, to bolster cyber-defenses and protect the UK economy.

An analysis suggests that the UK economy was facing significant issues long before the Brexit referendum, indicating that current economic problems cannot solely be attributed to Brexit.

Official data confirmed that Britain's economy grew robustly by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026, primarily driven by the services sector, despite ongoing household financial pressures.

A Bank of England economist, Pill, suggests that Brexit has increased the likelihood of inflation spirals in the UK economy.

A cyberattack that crippled Jaguar Land Rover last year, initially claimed by a loose collective, is now believed by investigators to have Russian involvement. The incident caused an estimated $2.5 billion in damage to the UK economy.

A decade after the vote, Brexit is being cited as a primary reason for the UK economy's ongoing difficulties in finding stable footing.

The UK economy has shrunk by six percent as a result of leaving the European Union, according to BBC reports and Bank of England data collected a decade after the Brexit referendum.

The UK's economy has fallen in global strength rankings, partly attributed to Brexit, while five Philippine universities also slipped in the QS World rankings, though UP remains the top-performing institution in the Philippines.

Surprisingly benign UK inflation data indicates that the economic impact of the Iran war has been softer than initially feared, with fuel price rises not broadly affecting the UK economy.

Wes Streeting has put forward proposals for emergency laws aimed at significantly accelerating the construction of major infrastructure projects, including power plants, to boost the UK economy.

Official data indicates that the UK economy experienced a slight contraction in April, with the impact of the Iran war beginning to be felt by businesses.

Economists forecast a 0.1% decline in UK output for April, largely attributing this reversal from March's growth to the surging fuel prices influenced by the Iran war.

The UK economy is projected to see two million people unemployed as growth falters, with the Middle East conflict identified as a key contributing factor to the negative forecast.

Barclays is advocating for government changes aimed at encouraging more foreign companies to manage their cash from the UK, hoping to stimulate the national economy through enlightened self-interest.

The Bank of England is reportedly preparing to ease lending regulations in an effort to unlock billions of pounds for the British economy.

Business activity in the United Kingdom has contracted for the first time in over a year, with reports citing a 'perfect storm' of factors contributing to the decline in May. This marks a significant downturn for the UK economy.

London is experiencing a decline in its economic prominence due to successive shocks and reduced growth, though it remains crucial for the broader UK economy.

The UK economy demonstrates resilience despite looming geopolitical risks, including the Mideast war and other political uncertainties.

An analysis by Faisal Islam reveals six key data points illustrating the resilience of the UK economy.

The UK's GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter compared to the previous three months, following a 0.2% increase at the end of 2025, meeting forecasts. However, economists express concerns about the second half of the year.

Despite positive indicators, concerns are growing regarding the underlying health and sustainability of the United Kingdom's economy.

A new modeling indicates that inflation could soar and conflict in the Middle East could cost the Treasury £8 billion a year, leading a think tank to suggest lower speed limits could help stop the Iran war from damaging the UK economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that policymakers are confronting the 'most difficult combination' of economic effects, primarily due to soaring energy prices. His comments highlight the significant challenges facing the UK economy and monetary policy.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has significantly cut its growth forecast for the United Kingdom. This revision comes as the UK economy is being hit by the effects of the Iran war and rising inflation.

The UK's economic recovery faces a new challenge as the Iran conflict impacts global markets, potentially complicating the path for Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves despite recent positive economic indicators.

A new poll indicates that most British voters desire lower energy costs and tax cuts to stimulate growth, with a large majority rating the UK economy as poor.

Iran war impact on UK economy and Chalamet's opera-ballet jab surges ticket sales leads the papers.

The UK economy is beginning to show the initial impacts of the Iran war, presenting a significant challenge for policymakers.

Consumer expectations for the UK economy over the next three months have fallen to their lowest recorded level, according to the BRC and Opinium, as the Middle East war continues to escalate.

The gilt rout deepened as traders are now betting on four interest rate rises from the Bank of England this year, with investors viewing the UK economy as highly exposed to an inflation shock.

The knock-on effects of the war in the Gulf go beyond a hold on interest rates and are set to reverberate for months.

The UK economy showed no growth in January, falling short of analysts' expectations for a 0.2% increase, as consumers reportedly cut back on spending, particularly on eating out.

UK economy ground to halt even before Iran war energy shock  Reuters

The Prime Minister has warned of the significant impact the Iran conflict could have on the UK economy, as oil prices soar in response to the turbulence in the Middle East.

Dire strait: How the Iran war could tank the UK economy  The Observer

Rachel Reeves touts ‘stability’ of UK public finances in Spring Statement amid gilt sell-off

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to provide an update on her economic plans for the UK, accompanied by an economic forecast on March 3.

The UK economy has seen a decline in consumption due to Brexit, the pandemic, and various crises, impacting Hungarian emigrants. However, a recovery is anticipated in the coming years, presenting investment opportunities.

The UK economy experienced a lackluster end to 2025 with sluggish GDP growth, prompting the chancellor to state that 'more needs to be done'.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver an update on the UK economy, known as the Spring Statement, on March 3, accompanied by an economic forecast.

The UK economy is experiencing a surge in business growth, with factory export orders reaching a post-Covid high, despite continued job losses.

Official figures show the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4% between April and June, with better-than-forecast growth of 0.3% in June, attributed to the World Cup and hot weather, though fears are growing over the potential impact of an Iran war.

Jobstreet reports that the Malaysian job market remains resilient despite global supply chain challenges, with job advertisements growing by 33% year-on-year.

The UK economy is experiencing a slowdown, attributed to ongoing political unrest and the conflict in the Middle East. These factors are impacting economic growth and stability.

The UK economy expanded by 0.4% between April and June, with some businesses reporting that hot weather and major sports events, such as the World Cup, contributed to growth in June.

Economists anticipate the UK economy will see another quarter of growth, with GDP expected to increase by 0.4% for the second quarter between April and June, indicating resilience.

An EY economic outlook warns that the UK economy could face a recession next year, with GDP slowing and inflation rising, if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut into 2027 due to a prolonged Iran conflict.

Despite ongoing challenges, the UK economy is experiencing a 'vibe shift,' suggesting a more positive outlook in facing its economic hurdles.

Reports indicate that Burnham has consolidated control over the United Kingdom's economy, signaling a significant power shift within No. 10.

The UK economy saw a modest 0.1% growth in May, following a 0.1% contraction in April, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, with the growth pulling back sharply after a strong start to the year and amid pressures from the Iran war.

A new report highlights the Romanian diaspora as emerging as one of the United Kingdom's most valuable workforces, contributing significantly to the UK economy.

The UK economy is projected to have remained stagnant or declined in May, following a 0.1% contraction in April, with economists attributing the slowdown partly to the impact of the Iran war.

A new report suggests that investing in making the UK's public transport network fully accessible to disabled passengers could unlock £176 billion for the economy by enabling 2.8 million more people to join the workforce.

Economists warn that the increasing cost of insuring against the climate crisis will have wider knock-on effects for the UK economy, as extreme weather events become more common, necessitating a more active government role to protect consumers.

Ten years after Brexit, a Spanish newspaper reflects on its impact, noting an 8% drop in UK GDP and the tenure of six prime ministers.

The UK economy has shrunk for a second straight month, according to recent PMI data. This indicates a continued contraction in economic activity within the United Kingdom.

Union boss Sharon Graham has issued a warning that Ed Miliband would be a 'noose around the neck' of the UK economy if he were to become chancellor, as Andy Burnham's team explores potential government appointments.

New data from the Bank of England indicates that Brexit has cost the UK economy approximately 6%. This figure reflects the economic impact on the country since its departure from the European Union.

A decade after Brexit, the UK economy is estimated to be 4% smaller than if it had remained in the EU, with exporters continuing to adjust to new trade realities.

Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, delivered a sharp speech on the UK economy but faces significant challenges as Keir Starmer maintains a firm stance.

The UK economy experienced a contraction of 0.1% in April, indicating a slight downturn in economic activity. This figure will be closely watched for its implications on future economic policy.

A Bloomberg report explores the potential economic consequences for the United Kingdom if Brexit were to be rolled back. The analysis delves into various scenarios and their impact on the UK economy.

Despite facing policy U-turns, Rachel Reeves is seen as quietly rebalancing the UK economy, making sure-footed advances on devolved spending to stimulate growth.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that the central bank may tolerate inflation to provide support for the UK economy.

The UK economy is projected to potentially exceed the International Monetary Fund's forecast once again, prompting discussions about the implications for the Labour party.

The British economy faces a tough outlook for businesses and consumers, with domestic and overseas matters contributing to the challenges, including the impact of what is described as "Trump's Iran war."

BBC's Faisal Islam published an analysis detailing six significant aspects of the UK economy, presented with accompanying charts. The report aimed to provide a clear overview of current economic trends.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that the economy isn't broken, following a surprise GDP boost in March, as speculation continues regarding her position.

The UK economy is experiencing significant cost increases, with soaring petrol prices boosting the electric car market and construction firms facing their sharpest rise in costs in nearly 30 years.

The UK economy is experiencing a dire impact from the ongoing oil shock and elevated energy prices, despite theoretical expectations of lower exposure compared to other nations.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn has warned that the UK faces an 'economic catastrophe' without immediate action from Westminster, calling for emergency financial support.

An analysis suggests that the British economy is constrained by the tension between voter expectations and the limitations imposed by bond markets, which exert significant influence over UK politics.

A think tank has warned that the UK economy could face a £35 billion hit and a risk of recession this year due to the potential impact of a Middle East conflict involving Iran. This economic downturn is projected even in a best-case scenario for the energy crisis.

The UK economy is struggling with rising inflation and a potential recession, with the Labour government facing pressure. The Energy Minister is proposing a reform of electricity prices to address the crisis.

The UK economy experienced a surprise GDP jump, but concerns are rising about a potential negative impact from a conflict involving Iran. This potential conflict is also being discussed from a Polish perspective, highlighting broader geopolitical implications.

The UK economy is losing £700m annually due to a cargo theft crisis, with criminal gangs operating with near impunity, prompting investigations by leading detectives like Mike Dawber.

A key survey indicates a growing sense of doubt among shoppers regarding the prospects for the UK economy in the coming year, attributed to a 'ripple of fear' stemming from the Iran conflict.

Consumer expectations for the UK economy have fallen to their lowest recorded level due to the escalating Middle East war, while Octopus Energy reports a 50% rise in solar panel sales since the conflict began, indicating a shift in energy concerns.

Britain’s economy stagnated unexpectedly in January after weak growth in the preceding months, according to official data, which showed a loss of momentum even before the war in Iran that is likely…

Economic consequences are an intrinsic aspect of the Iran conflict, writes BBC economics editor Faisal Islam.

The budget watchdog said that the outlook for inflation would be ‘particularly uncertain’.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has set out the latest outlook from the government's official forecaster

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver her Spring Statement on March 3, providing an update on her plans for the UK economy and an economic forecast.

The UK Chancellor is attempting to leverage current economic conditions to boost consumer and business confidence, as debate continues over whether the UK economy is truly recovering.

Exclusive: First meeting to be held over domestic payments system aimed at reducing reliance on US networks UK bank bosses will hold their first meeting to establish a national alternative to Visa and Mastercard, amid growing fears over Donald Trump’s ability to turn off US-owned payment systems. The meeting, chaired by Barclays’ UK chief executive, Vim Maru, will take place this Thursday and bring together a group of City funders that will front the costs of a new payments company to keep the UK economy running if problems were to occur. Continue reading...

Labour MPs may clamour for bolder spending, but – like their Tory and Reform counterparts – they ask for the unaffordable Too many Labour MPs want it all, and no amount of pleading from the top of government about the depleted public finances seems to make a difference. The mainly leftist MPs want all the wrongs of the last 15 years put right and quickly. Their next opportunity to demand more cash arrives when Rachel Reeves delivers her spring statement on 3 March. Continue reading...

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is starting to show tangible effects on the economic performance of the United Kingdom.

The UK economy has shown growth, but experts are cautioning that the country faces challenging months ahead. This indicates a mixed economic outlook despite recent positive figures.

The UK economy unexpectedly expanded in June, buoyed by sunny weather and the football World Cup, leading economists to comment on the outlook for Bank of England policy.

Internal Treasury modeling suggests that the UK's GDP growth could fall as low as 0.3% in 2027 if ongoing disruption in the Middle East persists.

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news The yen has hit its highest level in three months after Japan and the US launched a combined operation to support the Japanese currency. The…

The UK economy's vulnerability to a potential 'second China shock' is being assessed, indicating that while less exposed than some G7 partners, it is not entirely immune to the economic repercussions.

The UK economy experienced a return to growth in May, expanding by 0.1%. This marks a positive shift after previous economic performance.

The UK economy experienced a 0.1% growth in May, exceeding expectations despite external factors. This growth was accompanied by a reduction in the goods trade deficit.

The chair of a new task force predicts a 'huge prize' for the UK economy, estimating a £33 billion boost if progress is made in accelerating the shift to digital finance, including areas like issuing sovereign bonds on blockchain.

The economic costs of Brexit on the British economy are increasing with time, and despite no reversal in sight, a re-entry into the EU is not imminent.

His speech hits the right political notes but fails to offer a clear roadmap for growth

Richard Curran discusses Andy Burnham's political appeal and questions whether he can address the UK's economic decline, despite the energy surrounding his potential as prime minister.

Ten years after the Brexit vote, discussions are revisiting whether Britain successfully 'took back control' of its borders and examining the impact of Brexit on the economy, inflation, and the housing market. The long-term consequences of the decision continue to be debated.

A new analysis by the Bank of England reveals that the British economy has suffered a 6% loss as a result of leaving the European Union, with about half of the losses attributed to the initial shock and uncertainty following the referendum.

A new study warns that Brexit has led to a reduction in trade across nearly every sector of the UK economy. Much of this economic cost is attributed to the UK's departure from the European single market.

UK inflation has cooled, which is expected to ease pressure on the Bank of England regarding interest rate decisions. This development provides some relief for the UK economy.

The upcoming FIFA World Cup is projected to provide a significant economic boost to the UK, potentially adding £7.6 billion, while also offering an upside for sportsbook owners like Flutter Entertainment.

Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presented a detailed and optimistic blueprint for fixing the UK economy and fostering growth. His plan included a candid assessment of his own tenure in government.

The UK economy, which had grown better than expected before the outbreak of the Iran war, is now anticipated to show the effects of the conflict, particularly as fuel prices experience a significant surge.

A Bloomberg report examines the economic impact of Brexit on the UK economy over the past decade and explores potential future scenarios for the country's relationship with the European Union.

An analysis suggests that mutual misunderstanding and panicked commentary characterize the relationship between politicians and bond markets, despite a shared desire for a stronger UK economy.

An analysis suggests that internal domestic barriers to economic growth pose a more significant challenge to the UK economy than the impact of Brexit. The commentary highlights policy choices affecting national prosperity.

The Financial Times is inviting readers to submit questions for a live Ask an Expert Q&A session with economics leader writer Tej Parikh and economics commentator Chris Giles, focusing on strategies to revive the UK economy.

Consumer confidence in the UK economy has seen a slight increase, moving from minus 53 to minus 48, following perceived signs of de-escalation in tensions with Iran.

The UK economy has shown accelerated growth, surpassing the US, even as it faces potential headwinds from ongoing conflicts.

An analysis by Faisal Islam highlights six key aspects of the UK economy, demonstrating its current resilience. The report delves into detailed data to explain the underlying reasons for this performance.

Optimism surrounding a potential Iran deal has pushed oil prices below $100, while UK builders are facing a surge in costs. Climate campaigners have also criticized Shell over its 'windfall' profits, linking them to the ongoing conflict.

Reform UK's proposal to establish migrant detention centers, particularly in Green-voting areas, has sparked widespread criticism from other political parties. Analysts are also assessing the broader economic risks associated with the party's immigration policies.

The Bank of England's recent meeting and subsequent analysis highlight the significant uncertainties facing the UK economy, including the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on mortgages, bills, jobs, and broader financial stability.

A potential war with Iran is projected to cause a sharp slowdown in the UK economy due to an energy shock. In response, the EU is preparing subsidies to mitigate the impact of this anticipated energy crisis.

A think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, has warned that the UK economy could suffer a £35 billion impact and potentially enter a recession this year if the Middle East energy crisis is prolonged.

The UK economy has shown a rebound in growth, with firms increasing their stock levels, as indicated by a surprising Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report.

An analysis explores the current state of the UK economy, detailing how factors like economic growth rates influence pay increases and the amount of tax revenue generated. The report aims to explain the broader effects on individuals.

The UK economy is reportedly heading towards stagflation, characterized by rising inflation, higher unemployment, and low economic growth, with the Iran war cited as a contributing factor.

Despite the UK economy's reliance on surging energy imports, many FTSE 100 companies have benefited from market volatility, leading to UK stocks performing better than the overall economy.

Charities are urging Rachel Reeves to raise taxes on companies, including banks, defense, and energy firms, that are profiting from the 'war on Iran,' as oil prices skyrocket and the UK economy faces predicted growth drops.

A potential 'Trump energy shock' is being warned as a risk that could push the UK economy into recession, according to reports from The Times.

The knock-on effects of the war in the Gulf go beyond a hold on interest rates and are set to reverberate for months.

Starmer’s Hopes to Revive UK Economy Fade as Iran War Drags On  Bloomberg.com

Reeves has promised to guide the UK economy through ongoing conflict.

The chancellor insists Labour has ‘the right economic plan’ for a world that has become ‘yet more uncertain’ Continue reading...

UK Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts a GDP growth of 1.1% for the UK economy in 2026.

The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is preparing her spring economic outlook, aiming to present a stable fiscal picture amidst the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Bank of England is asserting its independence from the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, noting that the Fed's actions can have varied impacts on the UK economy.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is scheduled to provide an update on her plans for the UK economy, alongside an economic forecast, during the upcoming Spring Statement on March 3.

The UK economy is showing signs of improvement with stronger retail sales and business activity, providing a springboard for Rachel Reeves' March statement.

The struggling UK economy is reportedly adding to the woes of political leaders, highlighting broader economic challenges facing the nation.