The US added 1.51 million housing units (new construction minus demolitions) in 12 months, homes for 3.5 million people. The population grew by 757,000. And vacant housing units continued to surge.

During the last debt scare, the 10-year yield hit 5%, and the floodgates of demand opened. Now the debt is $6 trillion bigger; no guarantee 5% will open the floodgates again.

AI is used in 68% of occupations representing 88% of US employment, from software developers to farmers, industrial engineers, and foresters. It’s not automating away those jobs but is helping workers do their jobs.

In another 39 bigger cities, condo prices fell by 8% to 14%. A massive hangover after a historic Condo Bubble.

The first shock was due to the supply-chain chaos in 2021 through 2022. The second shock is now, it's huge, and it's due to the AI investment boom.

The plunge in energy prices pushed down overall PPI inflation, to a still very high 5.5%. It has been zigzagging higher since mid-2023.

“Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option,” he said with a sense of urgency.

The strategic and economic importance for the US of US oil & gas production cannot be overemphasized. Canada is #4.

The Fed’s anti-QT faction needs to take a look: The ECB has shed €3.70 trillion ($4.22 trillion) of its QE assets, nearly double the Fed’s QT, and nothing bad has happened.

But not all automakers are losers in this tough market.

A highly unusual labor market for the US, marked by a shrinking supply of labor.

The collapse of a currency is nothing to be trifled with. But the BOJ's pussyfooted rate hikes & QT are too little too late.

I’ll have sporadic access to the internet and will read the comments; if I turn into a night owl, I might write an article.

Everything is up for review. “There’s a taskforce for that,” he said. Dot plot, possibly the last one, turns hawkish.

How the long-term Treasury debt grows: Treasury notes & bonds outstanding rose on net by $59 billion this week.

The surge in energy costs is bad, but there's a lot of inflation from other sources.

But each market dances to a different drummer, and declines have been far bigger in many markets.

Some industries hired, others cut jobs: we zoom out with charts by major industry categories.

But mortgage rates are not high historically, and “real” mortgage rates, amid resurging inflation, are relatively low.

The Fed is behind the curve, the bond market is saying, and it’s going to hike belatedly starting later this year, whether it wants to or not.

Amid general chipmaker bloodbath, SK Hynix and Samsung, which make up half of the index, crashed even more.

In the South, inventory for sale was up 71% from 2019, while sales were down 8%. Homebuilders are very motivated to make deals.

Promising another morose summer in the housing market.

Unabated fears of inflation and worries about the onslaught of new debt keep pushing up long-term yields.

Sales at gas stations were pushed by massive price movements of gasoline; we look at retailer categories separately to sort it out.

How much of that foreign demand for US Treasuries is actually “foreign?” Less than it seems. Here are some clues.

Lots of new supply: Treasury debt of notes and bonds outstanding ballooned by $70 billion this week.

Spring selling season was a dud. But mortgage rates are not high; inflation is high.

The Fed watches inflation expectations closely. It wants them to remain “anchored.” But consumer inflation expectations have become unanchored.

Even banks are raising the yields on their brokered CDs to 4% and over. The coming rate hikes are getting real for investors.

But forget the Model S and X, and the Cybertruck.

US Government interest payments, tax receipts, tariffs, average interest rate on the debt, and Debt-to-GDP ratio in Q1 2026.

The 1-year Treasury yield spiked by 16 basis points, to 4.0%, highest since July, three rate cuts ago, as the bond market now expects multiple rate hikes.

Home prices fell from peaks in prior years in 28 of the 33 cities, led by Austin -27% and Oakland -26%, while AI mania in San Francisco trickled down from “mansion shortage” to mid-tier.

Inflation surged past these yields, though they've started to rise again. Households nevertheless poured more money into them.

Supercore services inflation surged, after taking off last fall. And AI data center demand drives electricity inflation.

Inflation is the bane of the bond market. And it is now demanding multiple rate hikes, starting late this year.

Rotating from mania to mania?

But this dynamic makes it harder for young people to find a job.

But if they pop: There are only so many trillions that can vanish from portfolios before it triggers a recession.

Orders for computer & electronic products; electrical equipment & components; machinery incl. power generation equipment; fabricated metals products; and core capital goods – all surged.

Warsh scuttled forward guidance, markets are on their own. However this comes out, it promises to be a rougher ride, but in a fresh breeze.

The gap between single-family rents and multifamily rents has widened massively. A look at 14 big markets.

And 28 were down from their peaks in prior years, led by Austin -27% and Oakland -25%.

Sales sag in all regions, plunge the most in the Midwest, drop to lowest for June in the South. Demand stuck in the deep-freeze.

The CPI headline does not provide political backing for a politically unpopular rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Details – such as outliers reverting in a month or two – don’t matter today.

The wholesale price index for used EVs hits $31,156 in June, 61% higher than for ICE vehicles. Consumers are splurging to buy used EVs.

The AI investment mania has begun to percolate through the economy, and the Fed has begun to fret about the effects.

Prices for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czechia, Finland, Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria.

Late to the QT game, it’s even selling its equity holdings outright. Nothing on its balance sheet is sacred.

Those ultra-low mortgages wrecked the housing market, but homeowners had nevertheless been paying them off steadily – until now.

The 6-Month "core services" PCE price index jumped 4.2% annualized, pushed the 6-month core PCE to 4.1%, worst since June 2023.

I have to say the FOMC press conference was a breath of fresh air.

A new role for the SPR. It wasn’t designed for that. But the original role to prevent shortages is no longer needed as the US is now awash in its own production and a huge exporter.

Cut the price, and they will buy. Dealing with the affordability crisis. Sales volume is up, but shares have plunged by nearly 50%.

Compared to May 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and Northeast (-31%), less so in the South (-15%) and Midwest (-17%).

We’re looking for culprits.

It could break the stock market. But it’ll stimulate the economy. Just don’t expect inflation to cool on its own.

Amid improved automation and efficiencies, production rises, but employment doesn’t, or only a little.

Trend reversal started a year ago. Services inflation stuck at high rate for a year. Now prices of food, energy, computers & software (inflationary AI boom), and gold jewelry (gold price spike) all surged.