But Powell said he’d stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and truly over,” and promised “to keep a low profile” and support the new chair.

Been brutal for real-estate stocks plunging from overhyped or meme-stock valuations amid thick losses, lots of debt, and a frozen housing market: Compass, Redfin, Anywhere Real Estate, eXp, and Douglas Elliman.

Even during the Senate hearings, Warsh stuck to his guns: the Fed should have a smaller balance sheet.

The share of “full paid days worked from home” has been declining by only about 1 percentage point per year.

Condos face some special challenges. Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), Austin (-26%) … the names pile up.

Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?”

March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly.

Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity.

“Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since February 2023.

BOJ tries to put a floor under the yen and a lid on inflation through QT, rather than with rate hikes.

10-Year Treasury yield bounced to 4.35% on Friday, after dipping earlier in the week. 30-year Treasury near 5%. Entire Yield Curve above EFFR.

The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020.

Total separations drop to the lowest since 2015 beyond the lockdown months.

The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.”

The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market.

When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train.

Bond market frets about inflation, leveraged Treasury bets unwind, housing market frets about spring selling season.

But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context.

Each city has its own housing market. In some, home prices have dropped a lot; in others, prices have hit new highs.

US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields.

“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other reasons.

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10th liquefaction & export terminal has shipped its first cargo. List of LNG export terminals, operating and under construction, by in-service date.

Even without gas stations, retail sales jumped, powered by ecommerce, auto dealers, general merchandise stores, and other retailers.

While the Nasdaq gained 100%, the economy grew by 15% not adjusted for inflation. Who needs cryptos when stocks are so much fun.

Prices of new & used vehicles, insurance, gasoline, maintenance & repairs, parts & accessories, and fees.

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It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly.

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria.

The 12-month average, which irons out Boeing’s huge orders, shows the trend: +8.8% year-over-year.

Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged.

In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But Orange County lags behind.

“These structural dynamics allow supply disruptions … to translate into rapid, outsized, and sustained price increases.”

Share of ARMs originations fell further and is at historic lows: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database.

QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates.

Explosive spending on data-centers exceeded plunging spending on office buildings for the first time ever.

They’re investment choices, like bond funds, bonds, etc., not that illusory “cash on the sidelines.”

Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026.

Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone.

Much lower margins, lower revenues per square foot, and lower construction costs. “We are adapting to market conditions as they are and not waiting for the market to bounce back”: CEO.

These dynamics are now moving in the right direction.

The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91%.

“Stairs up, express elevator down” as hedge funds sock it to each other.

Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th year of this relentless mess.

From the “Mansion Shortage” in AI-bubble-epicenter San Francisco infecting mid-tier home prices, to Austin & Oakland where prices plunged over 25% since 2022.

The hit from energy in March was softened as food and services briefly backed off. In prior months, services were the driver.

Those yields look too low for what’s coming at the bond market: The next wave of Inflation and a Fed that's comfortable with 3%+ core PCE inflation.

Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in Q1.

These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning.

Inflation and the deteriorating yen pushed the Bank of Japan into a hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own.

GM, Ford, Honda in a quagmire. Tesla now like GM & Ford. Stellantis & Nissan try to exit a death spiral. Toyota gains. Hyundai-Kia rocks from record to record.

But what the heck happened at food & beverage stores?

Government crackdown and legal entanglements take all the fun out of the Medicare Advantage plan bonanza.

Beer brewers have long suffered as Americans switched to wine. But since Covid, even winemakers got hit, and 2025 was really bad.

Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen.

Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front and center.

Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come.

Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods.

Now there’s a new wave of investor-funded tenants in town that are swimming in cash: AI companies.

Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention.